Design and evaluation of calibrated and seamless ensemble weather forecasts for crop protection applications

Abstract

AbstractAgriculture is a highly weather-dependent activity, climatic conditions impact both directly crop growth and indirectly diseases and pests developments causing yield losses. Weather forecasts are now a major component of various decision-support systems that assist farmers to optimize the positioning of crop protection treatments. However, properly accounting for weather uncertainty in these systems still remains a challenge. In this paper, three global and regional ensemble prediction systems (EPSs), covering different spatio-temporal scales, are coupled to a temperature-driven developmental model for grape vine moth in order to provide probabilistic forecasts of treatment dates. It is first shown that a parametric post-processing of the EPSs significantly improves the prediction of treatment dates. Anticipating the need for phytosanitary treatments also requires seamless weather forecasts from the next hour to sub-seasonal time scales. An approach is presented to design seamless ensemble forecasts from the combination of the three EPSs used. The proposed method is able to leverage the increased performance of high-resolution EPS at short ranges, while ensuring a smooth transition toward larger-scale EPSs for longer ranges. The added value of this seamless integration on agronomic predictions is, however, difficult to assess with the current experimental setup. Additional simulations over a larger number of locations and years may be required.