Development and Evaluation of In-Flight Icing Index Forecast for Aviation

Abstract

Abstract An in-flight icing index from the literature is implemented in the Met Office forecasting system. Comparison of hindcasts of cloud fraction with ground-based remote sensing observations of liquid and ice cloud fraction are used to inform a reformulation of part of the index. Satellite-retrieved icing potential is then used to quantitatively assess the reliability and skill of the new index and compare its performance to the current operational one. Having shown that the new index has substantially better reliability, ways of presenting separate icing likelihood and severity are explored using a case study.