Current Icing Potential: Algorithm Description and Comparison with Aircraft Observations

Author:

Bernstein Ben C.1,McDonough Frank1,Politovich Marcia K.1,Brown Barbara G.1,Ratvasky Thomas P.2,Miller Dean R.2,Wolff Cory A.1,Cunning Gary1

Affiliation:

1. Research Applications Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado

2. NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio

Abstract

Abstract The “current icing potential” (CIP) algorithm combines satellite, radar, surface, lightning, and pilot-report observations with model output to create a detailed three-dimensional hourly diagnosis of the potential for the existence of icing and supercooled large droplets. It uses a physically based situational approach that is derived from basic and applied cloud physics, combined with forecaster and onboard flight experience from field programs. Both fuzzy logic and decision-tree logic are applied in this context. CIP determines the locations of clouds and precipitation and then estimates the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets within a given airspace. First developed in the winter of 1997/98, CIP became an operational National Weather Service and Federal Aviation Administration product in 2002, providing real-time diagnoses that allow users to make route-specific decisions to avoid potentially hazardous icing. The CIP algorithm, its individual components, and the logic behind them are described.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

Reference50 articles.

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3. Bernstein, B C. 1996. A new technique for identifying locations where supercooled large droplets are likely to exist: The stovepipe algorithm. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 5–8.

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