Prolific Lightning and Thunderstorm Initiation over the Lake Victoria Basin in East Africa

Abstract

AbstractThe Lake Victoria basin of East Africa is home to over 30 million people, over 200 000 of whom are employed in fishing or transportation on the lake. Approximately 3000–5000 individuals are killed by thunderstorms yearly, primarily by outflow winds and resulting large waves. Prolific lightning activity and thunderstorm initiation in the basin are examined using continuous total lightning observations from the Earth Networks Global Lightning Network (ENGLN) for September 2014–August 2018. Seasonal shifts in the intertropical convergence zone produce semiannual lightning maxima over the lake. Diurnally, solar heating and lake and valley breezes produce daytime lightning maxima north and east of the lake, while at night the peak lightning density propagates southwestward across the lake. Cluster analysis reveals terrain-related thunderstorm initiation hot spots northeast of the lake; clusters also initiate over the lake and northern lowlands. The most prolific clusters initiate between 1100 and 1400 LT, about 1–2 h earlier than the average cluster. Most daytime thunderstorms dissipate without reaching Lake Victoria, and annually 85% of clusters producing over 1000 flashes over Lake Victoria initiate in situ. Initiation times of prolific Lake Victoria clusters exhibit a bimodal seasonal cycle: equinox-season thunderstorms initiate most frequently between 2200 and 0400 LT, while solstice-season thunderstorms initiate most frequently from 0500 to 0800 LT, more than 12 h after the afternoon convective peak over land. More extreme clusters are more likely to have formed over land and propagated over the lake, including 36 of the 100 most extreme Lake Victoria thunderstorms. These mesoscale clusters are most common during February–April and October–November.