Toward Improved Short-Term Forecasting for Lake Victoria Basin. Part I: A Radar-Based Convective Mode Analysis

Abstract

Abstract East African countries benefit economically from the largest freshwater lake in Africa: Lake Victoria (LV). Around 30 million people live along its coastline, and 5.4 million people subsist on its fishing industry. However, more than 1000 fishermen die annually by high-wave conditions often produced by severe convective wind phenomena, which marks this lake one of the deadliest places in the world for hazardous weather impacts. The World Meteorological Organization launched the 3-yr High Impact Weather Lake System (HIGHWAY) project, with the main objective to reduce loss of lives and economic goods in the lake basin and improve the resilience of the local communities. The project conducted a field campaign in 2019 aiming to provide forecasters with high-resolution observations and to study the storm life cycle over the lake basin. The research discussed here used the S-band polarimetric Tanzania radar from the field campaign to investigate the diurnal cycle of the convective mode over the lake. We classified the lake storms occurring during the two wet seasons into six different convective modes and present their diurnal evolution, organization, and main radar-based attributes, thereby extending the knowledge of convection on the lake. The result is the creation of a “convection catalog for Lake Victoria,” using the operational forecast lake sectors, and defining the exact times for the different timeslots resulting from the HIGHWAY project for the marine forecast. This will inform methods to improve the marine operational forecasts for Lake Victoria, and to provide the basis for new standard operation procedures (SOP) for severe weather surveillance and warning. Significance Statement In this work we use new radar data over Lake Victoria, Africa, to study convective mode organization and its diurnal cycle over the lake. This work is of particular importance due to the numerous hazardous weather events and related accidents on the lake, including capsized boats, plane crashes, floods, and hailstorms on the shore settlements, that are responsible for a high annual fatality toll. Results of our analyses provide updated information for operational marine forecasts using relevant time segments and sectors of the lake to improve nowcasting operations in Lake Victoria.