An Intraseasonal Prediction Model of Atlantic and East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Abstract

AbstractA real-time statistical model based on the work of Leroy and Wheeler is developed via multiple logistic regression to predict weekly tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic and east Pacific basins. The predictors used in the model include a climatology of tropical cyclone genesis for each ocean basin, an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, and two indices representing the propagating Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The Atlantic model also includes a predictor representing the variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Main Development Region (MDR). These predictors are suggested as useful for the prediction of tropical cyclogenesis based on previous work in the literature and are further confirmed in this study using basic statistics. Univariate logistic regression models are generated for each predictor in each region to ensure the choice of prediction scheme. Using all predictors, cross-validated hindcasts are developed out to a seven-week forecast lead. A formal stepwise predictor selection procedure is implemented to select the predictors used in each region at each forecast lead.Brier skill scores and reliability diagrams are used to assess the skill and dependability of the models. Results show an increase in model skill over the time-varying climatology at predicting tropical cyclogenesis by the inclusion of the MJO out to a three-week forecast lead for the east Pacific and a two-week forecast lead for the Atlantic. The importance of ENSO and MDR SST for Atlantic genesis prediction is highlighted, and the uncertain effects of ENSO on east Pacific tropical cyclogenesis are revisited.