Examining the Relationship between Tropopause Polar Vortices and Tornado Outbreaks

Abstract

AbstractMid-latitude jet streaks are known to produce conditions broadly supportive of tornado outbreaks, including forcing for large-scale ascent, increased wind shear, and decreased static stability. Although many processes may initiate a jet streak, we focus here on the development of jet maxima by interactions between the polar jet and tropopause polar vortices (TPVs). Originating from the Arctic, TPVs are long-lived circulations on the tropopause, which can be advected into the mid-latitudes. We hypothesize that when these vortices interact with the jet, they may contribute supplemental forcing for ascent and shear to tornado outbreaks, assuming other environmental conditions supportive of tornado development exist. Using a case set of significant tornado outbreak days from three states—Oklahoma, Illinois, and Alabama—we show that a vortex-jet streak structure is present (within 1250 km) in around two-thirds of tornado outbreaks. These vortices are commonly Arctic in origin (i.e., are TPVs) and are advected through a consistent path of entry into the mid-latitudes in the week before the outbreak, moving across the Northern Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska before turning equatorward along the North American coast. These vortices are shown to be more intense and longer-lived than average. We further demonstrate that statistically significant patterns of wind shear, quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent, and low static stability are present over the outbreak regions on the synoptic scale. In addition, we find that TPVs associated with tornadic events occur most often in the spring and are associated with greater low-level moisture when compared to non-tornadic TPV cases.