Advancements in Objective Multisatellite Tropical Cyclone Center Fixing

Abstract

AbstractAn improved version of the Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) tropical cyclone (TC) center-fixing algorithm, introduced here as “ARCHER-2,” is presented with a characterization of its accuracy and precision and a comparison with alternative methods. The algorithm is calibrated for 37- and 85–92-GHz microwave imagers; geostationary imagery at visible, near-infrared, and longwave infrared window channels; and scatterometer ambiguities. In addition to a center fix, ARCHER-2 produces a quantitative estimate of expected error that can be used automatically or manually to evaluate the suitability of a result. The median center-fix error ranges from 24 (using scatterometer) to 49 (using infrared window) km relative to the National Hurricane Center best track. Multisatellite, multisensor results can also be used together to produce a TC-track estimate that selects from the best of all of the available imagery in the ancillary “ARCHER-Track” product. The median error of ARCHER-Track varies between 17 and 38 km, depending on TC intensity and data latency. The bias of the product’s expected error varies between 0% and 12%, which translates to an average of only 4 km. When compared with operational, subjective center-fix estimates, the ARCHER-Track approach improves on 29%–43% of these cases at the tropical-depression and tropical-storm stages, at which further assistance is typically sought. This result demonstrates that ARCHER-2 and ARCHER-Track can complement and accelerate operational forecasting where needed and can furnish other automated TC-analysis methods with well-characterized center-fix information.