M-PERC: A New Satellite Microwave-Based Model to Diagnose the Onset of Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Replacement Cycles

Author:

Kossin James P.123ORCID,Herndon Derrick C.4,Wimmers Anthony J.4,Guo Xi45,Blake Eric S.6

Affiliation:

1. a The Climate Service (an S&P Global company), Madison, Wisconsin

2. b University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

3. c Climate Science and Services Division, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina

4. d Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, Wisconsin

5. e Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China

6. f NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

Abstract

Abstract Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) in tropical cyclones (TCs) are generally associated with rapid changes in TC wind intensity and broadening of the TC wind field, both of which can create unique forecasting challenges. As part of the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed Project, a new model was developed to provide operational probabilistic guidance on ERC onset. The model is based on the time evolution of TC wind intensity and passive satellite microwave imagery and is named “M-PERC” for Microwave-Based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle. The model was initially developed in the Atlantic basin but is found to be globally applicable and skillful. The development of M-PERC and its performance characteristics are described here, as well as a new intensity prediction model that extends previous work. Application of these models is expected to contribute to a reduction of TC intensity forecast error.

Funder

NOAA

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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