Daily Precipitation Fields Modeling across the Great Lakes Region (Canada) by Using the CFSR Reanalysis

Abstract

AbstractReanalyses, generated by numerical weather prediction methods assimilating past observations, provide consistent and continuous meteorological fields for a specific period. In regard to precipitation, reanalyses cannot be used as a climate proxy of the observed precipitation, as biases and scale mismatches exist between the datasets. In the present study, a stochastic model output statistics (SMOS) approach combined with meta-Gaussian spatiotemporal random fields was employed to cope with these caveats. The SMOS is based on the generalized linear model (GLM) and the vector generalized linear model (VGLM) frameworks to model the precipitation occurrence and intensity, respectively. Both models use the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) precipitation as covariate and were locally calibrated at 173 sites across the Great Lakes region. Combined with meta-Gaussian random fields, the GLM and VGLM models allowed for the generation of spatially coherent daily precipitation fields across the region. The results indicated that the approach corrected systematic biases and provided an accurate spatiotemporal structure of daily precipitation. Performances of selected precipitation indicators from the joint Commission for Climatology (CCl)/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were good and were systematically improved when compared to CFSR.