El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impact on Tea Production and Rainfall in South India

Abstract

AbstractEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an aperiodic oscillation of sea surface temperature (SST)-induced interannual rainfall variability in south India (SI) that has a direct impact on rain-fed agricultural production and the economy of the region. The study analyzed the influence of ENSO-related rainfall variability on crop yield of south Indian tea-growing regions (SITR) for the period of 1971–2015. The relationship between SST anomalies from June to August over the Niño-3 sector of the tropical Pacific Ocean and tea production anomalies of SI shows a positive correlation. However, SST has a negative relationship with rainfall in the regions of the southwest monsoon but not with the northeast monsoon region of the Nilgiris. The correlation between rainfall and crop yield in SI (r = 0.045) is positively weak and statistically insignificant (p > 0.05). Tea production is influenced more by the cold phase than the warm phase of ENSO, whereas rainfall is greatly influenced by the warm phase. Tea production across the regions indicated that none of the ENSO phase categories based on Niño-3 has significantly greater production than any of the other ENSO phases. Therefore, the predictability of tea production on the basis of ENSO phases is limited. Our findings highlight that the crop production of SITR appeared to be less responsive to the ENSO phases. This may be due to improvements in production technology that mitigated the problems associated with rainfall variability.