Multimodel comparison and assessment of short to medium range precipitation and temperature forecasts over India: Implications towards forecasting of meteorological indices in India

Abstract

AbstractA comprehensive assessment of the forecast skill of various meteorological indices over the Indian region from different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is lacking in the literature. In this study the performance of four NWP models, namely Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv12), European Center for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF), Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) towards forecasting of precipitation, temperature and associated meteorological indices, is evaluated at short to medium timescales across the Indian region. Further, the effect of ocean atmospheric (OA) oscillations on the precipitation/temperature forecast skill from the different NWP models is also assessed. Results show that the NWP models are better in predicting the meteorological indices than the quantitative forecasts. The ECMWF model was found to be the best for PCP forecasting with CFSv2 performing poorly. For temperature the GEFSv12 model performance was the lowest, compared to rest of the models. The models show poor skill in forecasting monsoon season precipitation compared to non‐monsoon and the temperature forecasts from the NWP models are particularly poor for the northern basins. Skilful temperature forecasts are observed in the Northwestern, Indo‐Gangetic and Central basins for the CFSv2 and ECMWF models. The forecast skill of precipitation indices are higher in the northwestern, central and Indo‐Gangetic basins compared to the rest. The skill of precipitation indices, namely rainy days, extreme rainy days and consecutive wet days, is higher during the monsoon seasons while the prediction skill of consecutive dry days is higher during the non‐monsoon season. OA analysis revealed that the ENSO phases have dominant effect on the forecast skill of the precipitation only. The temperature and meteorological indices forecasts are not affected significantly by the OA phases. The outcomes of this study have implications towards irrigation scheduling and water resources management decision making in India.