Structure and Dynamics of Ensemble Correlations for Satellite All-Sky Observations in an FV3-Based Global-to-Regional Nested Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecast of Hurricane Harvey

Abstract

AbstractThere are ongoing efforts to establish an ensemble data assimilation and prediction system for tropical cyclones based on the FV3 (finite-volume cubed-sphere) dynamic core with the capability to assimilate satellite all-sky infrared and microwave observations. To complement the system developments and improve our understanding of the assimilation of all-sky infrared and microwave observations, this study assesses their potential impacts on the analysis of Hurricane Harvey (2017) through examinations of the structure and dynamics of the ensemble-based correlations as well as single observation data assimilation experiments, using an ensemble forecast generated by a global-to-regional nested FV3-based model. It is found that different infrared and microwave channels are sensitive to different types of hydrometeors within different layers of the atmosphere, and the correlations vanish beyond 200 km in the region covered by cloud or abundant hydrometeors. The spatial correlations between brightness temperatures and model states will adjust the structure and intensity of the hurricane in the model so that the simulated hurricane will better fit the “observed” brightness temperatures. In general, these results show how assimilating infrared and microwave together can improve the analyses of tropical cyclone intensity and structure, which may lead to improved intensity forecasts.