Creating a Communication Framework for FACETs: How Probabilistic Hazard Information Affected Warning Operations in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed

Abstract

Abstract Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, and hail) as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) framework. In this study, we employ the embedded systems theory (EST)—a communication framework that analyzes small group workplace practices as products of group, organizational, and local dynamics—to understand how probabilistic hazard information (PHI) is produced and negotiated among multiple NWS weather forecast offices in an experimental setting. Gathering feedback from NWS meteorologists who participated in the 2020 Hazard Services (HS)-PHI Interoffice Collaboration experiment, we explored implications of local and interoffice collaboration while using this experimental tool. By using a qualitative thematic analysis, it was found that differing probability thresholds, forecasting styles, social dynamics, and workload will be social factors that developers should consider as they bring PHI toward operational readiness. Warning operations in this new paradigm were also implemented into the EST model to create a communication ecosystem for future weather hazard communication research. Significance Statement Meteorologists are currently exploring how to use probabilities to communicate life-saving information. From tornadoes to hail, a new type of probabilistic hazard information could fundamentally change the way that NWS meteorologists collaborate with one another when issuing weather products, especially near and along the boundaries of County Warning Areas. To explore potential collaboration challenges and solutions, we applied a communication framework and explored perceptions that NWS meteorologists had while using this new tool in an experimental setting. NWS meteorologists expressed that differing ways of communicating hazard information between each office, along with forecasting styles and workload, would change the way they go about producing critical hazard information to the public.