Evaluation of the NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Downscaling for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Vietnam

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the ability to apply National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) products and their downscaling by using the Regional Climate Model version 4.2 (RegCM4.2) on seasonal rainfall forecasts over Vietnam. First, the CFS hindcasts (CFS_Rfc) from 1982 to 2009 are used to assess the ability of the CFS to predict the overall circulation and precipitation patterns at forecast lead times of up to 6 months. Second, the operational CFS forecasts (CFS_Ope) and its RegCM4.2 downscaling (RegCM_CFS) for the period 2012–14 are used to derive seasonal rainfall forecasts over Vietnam. The CFS_Rfc and CFS_Ope are validated against the ECMWF interim reanalysis, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) analyzed rainfall, and observations from 150 meteorological stations across Vietnam. The results show that the CFS_Rfc can capture the seasonal variability of the Asian monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution. The higher-resolution RegCM_CFS product is advantageous over the raw CFS in specific climatic subregions during the transitional, dry, and rainy seasons, particularly in the northern part of Vietnam in January and in the country’s central highlands during July.