Ensemble Oscillation Correction (EnOC): Leveraging oscillatory modes to improve forecasts of chaotic systems

Abstract

AbstractOscillatory modes of the climate system are among its most predictable features, especially at intraseasonal time scales. These oscillations can be predicted well with data-driven methods, often with better skill than dynamical models. However, since the oscillations only represent a portion of the total variance, a method for beneficially combining oscillation forecasts with dynamical forecasts of the full system was not previously known. We introduce Ensemble Oscillation Correction (EnOC), a general method to correct oscillatory modes in ensemble forecasts from dynamical models. We compute the ensemble mean—or the ensemble probability distribution—with only the best ensemble members, as determined by their discrepancy from a data-driven forecast of the oscillatory modes. We also present an alternate method which uses ensemble data assimilation to combine the oscillation forecasts with an ensemble of dynamical forecasts of the system (EnOCDA). The oscillatory modes are extracted with a time-series analysis method called multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA), and forecast using an analog method. We test these two methods using chaotic toy models with significant oscillatory components, and show that they robustly reduce error compared to the uncorrected ensemble. We discuss the applications of this method to improve prediction of monsoons as well as other parts of the climate system.