Correlation Analysis between Precipitation and Precipitable Water Vapor over China Based on 1999–2015 Ground-Based GPS Observations

Abstract

Abstract Correlation analysis between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and precipitation over China was conducted by combining high-quality PWV data based on 1999–2015 ground-based global positioning system (GPS) observations with the measurements at matched meteorological stations in the same period. The mean correlation coefficient at all the stations is approximately 0.73, indicating that there is a significant positive correlation between PWV content and precipitation measurements, and the comparison of correlation among different climate types suggests that the distribution characteristics of the correlation coefficients are distinctively related to different climate types. There is also some positive correlation between PWV and precipitation long-term trends, with the correlation coefficients of monthly anomalies ranging generally from 0.2 to 0.6. Furthermore, the intensity of both PWV and precipitation extremes shows a long-term upward trend overall, with the most-intense events showing more significant increases. The extreme precipitation–temperature scaling rate of changes can reach above Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling, whereas that of the extreme PWV-temperature is sub-CC overall, with regional differences in the specific scaling values. The correlation analysis in this work is of great significance for long-term climate analysis and extreme weather understanding, which provides a valuable reference for better utilizing the advantages of PWV data to carry out the studies above. Significance Statement Atmospheric water vapor is crucial to the climate system, especially in the context of global warming, and accurate knowledge of the correlation between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and precipitation is of great significance for long-term climate analysis and extreme precipitation weather forecasting. We take full advantage of the long-term homogeneity of ground-based GPS to conduct long-term correlation analysis between GPS-derived PWV and precipitation over China. Results show a significant positive correlation between them, and the degree of correlation is related to different climate types. The correlation of monthly anomalies is also positive, and, over the long-term, both water vapor and precipitation extremes have been increasing in intensity, with more significant increases occurring in the most-intense events. Extreme precipitation might increase beyond thermodynamic expectations, whereas PWV increases below expectations.