Atlantic coastal sea level variability and synoptic-scale meteorological forcing

Abstract

Abstract Anomalous sea levels along the Mid- and South- Atlantic coasts of the United States are often linked to atmosphere- ocean dynamics, remote- and local- scale forcing and other factors linked to cyclone passage, winds, waves, and storm surge. Herein, we examine sea level variability along the U.S. Atlantic coast through satellite altimeter and coastal tide gauge data within the context of synoptic-scale weather pattern forcing. Altimetry, derived from sea level anomaly (SLA) data between 1993 and 2019 were compared with Self Organizing Map (SOM)-based atmospheric circulation and surface wind field categorizations to reveal spatiotemporal patterns and their inter-relationships with high water-level conditions at tide gauges. Regional elevated sea level patterns and variability were strongly associated with synergistic patterns of atmospheric circulation and wind. Recurring atmospheric patterns associated with high-tide flooding events and flood risk were identified, as were specific regional oceanographic variability patterns of SLA response. The incorporation of combined metrics of wind and circulation patterns further isolate atmospheric drivers of high tide flood events and may have particular significance for predicting future flood events over multiple spatial and temporal scales.