The Validity of Dvorak Intensity Change Constraints for Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

Abstract The Dvorak technique is used operationally worldwide for tropical cyclone intensity analysis. This study tests Dvorak intensity change constraints, using a database of simultaneous aircraft and satellite fixes for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the 1998–2012 period. Results indicate that, in the vast majority of cases, Dvorak intensity constraints are valid with only a small percentage of strengthening TCs violating the constraints. Of the small sample that broke the constraints, most had initial intensities ranging from moderately strong tropical storms to minimal hurricanes.