On Kurtosis and Occurrence Probability of Freak Waves

Abstract

Abstract Based on a weakly non-Gaussian theory, the occurrence probability of freak waves is formulated in terms of the number of waves in a time series and the surface elevation kurtosis. Finite kurtosis gives rise to a significant enhancement of freak wave generation in comparison with the linear narrowbanded wave theory. For a fixed number of waves, the estimated amplification ratio of freak wave occurrence due to the deviation from the Gaussian theory is 50%–300%. The results of the theory are compared with laboratory and field data.