Statistical Modeling of 2-m Temperature and 10-m Wind Speed Forecast Errors

Abstract

Abstract Based on the principle “learn from past errors to correct current forecasts,” statistical postprocessing consists of optimizing forecasts generated by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this context, machine learning (ML) offers state-of-the-art tools for training statistical models and making predictions based on large datasets. In our study, ML-based solutions are developed to reduce forecast errors of 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed of the ECMWF’s operational medium-range, high-resolution forecasts produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). IFS forecasts and other spatiotemporal indicators are used as predictors after careful selection with the help of ML interpretability tools. Different ML approaches are tested: linear regression, random forest decision trees, and neural networks. Statistical models of systematic and random errors are derived sequentially where the random error is defined as the residual error after bias correction. In terms of output, bias correction and forecast uncertainty prediction are made available at any point from locations around the world. All three ML methods show a similar ability to capture situation-dependent biases leading to noteworthy performance improvements (between 10% and 15% improvement in terms of root-mean-square error for all lead times and variables), and a similar ability to provide reliable uncertainty predictions.