Factors Influencing the Track of Hurricane Dorian (2019) in the West Atlantic: Analysis of a HAFS Ensemble

Abstract

Abstract Hurricane Dorian (2019), a category-5 tropical cyclone (TC), was characterized by a large spread in track forecasts as it moved northwest. A set of 80 ensemble forecasts from the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) was produced to evaluate Dorian’s track spread and the factors that contributed to it. Track spread was particularly critical at long lead times (5–7 days after initialization near the Lesser Antilles), because of the uncertainty in the location of landfall and hazards. Four clusters of members were analyzed based on the 7-day track, characterized by Dorian moving: 1) slowly near the northern Bahamas (closest to reality), 2) across the Florida Peninsula, 3) slowly into Florida’s east coast, and 4) quickly north of the Bahamas. Ensemble sensitivity techniques were applied to identify areas that were most critical for Dorian’s track. Key differences were found in the strength of the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean with a weaker ridge and slower easterly steering flow in the offshore groups. Subtle differences in the synoptic pattern over the United States also appeared to affect the timing of Dorian’s northward turn, specifically the strength of a shortwave trough moving over the Ohio Valley. Despite some early track differences, the correlation between early and late track errors was not significant. An examination of four members further highlights the differences in steering and the strength of the subtropical ridge. This study demonstrates the utility of ensemble datasets for studying TC forecast uncertainty and the importance of medium-range modeling of synoptic-scale steering features to accurately predict the track of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Hurricane Dorian was a catastrophic hurricane for the Bahamas and got very close to Florida without directly impacting the state. Some early forecasts showed the storm moving directly into or across Florida; others correctly showed the storm stalling over the Bahamas and then turning northward. This track forecast uncertainty made preparations in Florida challenging; therefore, we wanted to better understand why Dorian took the track that it did, to see what this tells us about the factors that affect hurricane tracks, and learn for future storms. We looked at an ensemble of 80 runs of a hurricane model, initiated at the same time. Some runs showed a Florida landfall; others showed Dorian stalling over the Bahamas. The strength of the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic north of Dorian and an upper-level trough of low pressure over the United States were key influences on storm path. These two large-scale features were better forecast in the ensemble members that correctly showed Dorian stalling and turning northward. This study shows how useful ensembles can be for understanding the processes driving hurricane motion and also shows that it is critical to forecast multiple synoptic-scale features correctly to accurately predict a hurricane’s track 5–7 days in advance.