Kilometer-Scale Climate Models: Prospects and Challenges

Author:

Schär Christoph1,Fuhrer Oliver2,Arteaga Andrea3,Ban Nikolina4,Charpilloz Christophe5,Di Girolamo Salvatore6,Hentgen Laureline1,Hoefler Torsten6,Lapillonne Xavier3,Leutwyler David7,Osterried Katherine8,Panosetti Davide1,Rüdisühli Stefan1,Schlemmer Linda9,Schulthess Thomas C.10,Sprenger Michael1,Ubbiali Stefano10,Wernli Heini1

Affiliation:

1. Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

2. Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland, and Climate Modeling, Vulcan Inc., Seattle, USA

3. Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland

4. Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, and University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

5. Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, and MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland

6. Computer Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

7. Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

8. Center for Climate Systems Modeling, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

9. Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, and German Weather Service (DWD), Offenbach, Germany

10. Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, and Swiss National Supercomputing Center, Lugano, Switzerland

Abstract

AbstractCurrently major efforts are underway toward refining the horizontal resolution (or grid spacing) of climate models to about 1 km, using both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs). Several groups have succeeded in conducting kilometer-scale multiweek GCM simulations and decadelong continental-scale RCM simulations. There is the well-founded hope that this increase in resolution represents a quantum jump in climate modeling, as it enables replacing the parameterization of moist convection by an explicit treatment. It is expected that this will improve the simulation of the water cycle and extreme events and reduce uncertainties in climate change projections. While kilometer-scale resolution is commonly employed in limited-area numerical weather prediction, enabling it on global scales for extended climate simulations requires a concerted effort. In this paper, we exploit an RCM that runs entirely on graphics processing units (GPUs) and show examples that highlight the prospects of this approach. A particular challenge addressed in this paper relates to the growth in output volumes. It is argued that the data avalanche of high-resolution simulations will make it impractical or impossible to store the data. Rather, repeating the simulation and conducting online analysis will become more efficient. A prototype of this methodology is presented. It makes use of a bit-reproducible model version that ensures reproducible simulations across hardware architectures, in conjunction with a data virtualization layer as a common interface for output analyses. An assessment of the potential of these novel approaches will be provided.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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