Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle

Author:

Hegerl Gabriele C.1,Black Emily2,Allan Richard P.2,Ingram William J.3,Polson Debbie1,Trenberth Kevin E.4,Chadwick Robin S.5,Arkin Phillip A.6,Sarojini Beena Balan2,Becker Andreas7,Dai Aiguo8,Durack Paul J.9,Easterling David10,Fowler Hayley J.11,Kendon Elizabeth J.5,Huffman George J.12,Liu Chunlei2,Marsh Robert13,New Mark14,Osborn Timothy J.15,Skliris Nikolaos13,Stott Peter A.5,Vidale Pier-Luigi2,Wijffels Susan E.16,Wilcox Laura J.2,Willett Kate M.5,Zhang Xuebin17

Affiliation:

1. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Grant Institute, United Kingdom

2. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading/National Centre for Atmospheric Science Climate, Reading, United Kingdom

3. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, and Department of Physics, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom

4. National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado

5. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

6. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland

7. Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

8. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York, and National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado

9. Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

10. NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

11. School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom

12. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

13. Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom

14. University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Cape Town, South Africa

15. Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norfolk, United Kingdom

16. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

17. Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Abstract Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time series over land, but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols and because of the large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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