Affiliation:
1. Division of Cardiology Minneapolis VA Health Care System Minneapolis MN
2. Department of Medicine University of Minnesota Minneapolis MN
3. Cardiac Rhythm Heart FailureMedtronic, Inc. Minneapolis MN
Abstract
Background
Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) risk increases after myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with a reduced ejection fraction (EF). However, the risk factors for SCA among patients with a post‐MI EF >35% remain poorly understood.
Methods and Results
Using the Optum de‐identified electronic health record data set from 2008 to 2017, we identified patients with an incident MI diagnosis and troponin elevation who had a post‐MI EF >35% and underwent coronary angiography. Primary outcome was SCA within 1 year post‐MI. The database was divided into derivation (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts by random selection. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to generate and validate a risk prediction model. Among 31 286 patients with an MI (median age 64.1; 39% female; 87% White), 499 experienced SCA within 1 year post‐MI (estimated probability 1.8%). Lack of revascularization at MI, post‐MI EF <50%, Black race, renal failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, antiarrhythmic therapy, and absence of beta blocker therapy were independent predictors of SCA. A multivariable model consisting of these variables predicted SCA risk (C‐statistic 0.73). Based on this model, the estimated annual probability of SCA was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.9–4.9) in the highest quartile of risk versus 0.6% (95% CI, 0.4–0.8) in the lowest quartile.
Conclusions
Patients with a post‐MI EF >35% have a substantial annual risk of SCA. A risk model consisting of acute coronary revascularization, EF, race, renal failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, antiarrhythmic therapy, and beta blocker therapy can identify patients with higher risk of SCA, who may benefit from further risk stratification and closer monitoring.
Publisher
Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Subject
Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
Cited by
4 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献