The Impact of Retail and E-commerce Sales on Inflation Including the Covid-19 Period: Evidence from Turkiye

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of retail or online shopping on the producer price index before and during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Thus, the impact of crisis periods will be clearly revealed. For this reason, In the study, data between January 2010 and November 2022 are used in the case of Turkey. As a result of the empirical analyses, it was determined that the causality relationship between the Producer Price Index and the Internet and Mail Order Turnover Index, which was valid in every canton without exception until the Covid-19 pandemic, disappeared with the pandemic. No causal relationship has been identified from Internet and Mail Orders Turnover Index to Producer Price Index. While bi-directional causality was detected between Retail Turnover Index and Producer Price Index in some quantiles, unidirectional causality was detected from Producer Price Index to Retail Turnover Index in some quantiles.