Simulation of scenarios for overcoming absolute monetary poverty in Russia based on the concept of unconditional basic income

Abstract

The article is devoted to modeling the possibilities of overcoming absolute monetary poverty in Russia based on the concept of an unconditional basic income (UBI). It is shown that due to the unclear consequences of the impact of the introduction of UBI payments on various aspects of the life of modern societies, due to the impossibility of making payments in full compliance with the basic principles of UBI, such as universality and unconditionality due to political, economic and other restrictions, imitation is widely used in the world to evaluate its possible effects. A review of approaches to simulation modeling in the EU countries, international research, and financial organizations (OECD, World Bank, International Monetary Fund) and the Russian experience in modeling the effects of the introduction of transitional forms of UBI is carried out. The formulation of the task of introducing the UBI to overcome absolute monetary poverty has been carried out. It is shown that to solve this problem, it is expedient to consider the UBI as a guaranteed minimum per capita income of a poor household, equal to the regional subsistence minimum or the conditional basic income for overcoming poverty. To increase the actual incomes of low-income households up to the regional subsistence minimum, it is proposed to pay them, after providing standard targeted social support, the additional differentiated regional social payment (poverty benefit). Algorithms for determining this payment have been developed. The substantiation of the possibility and feasibility of modeling the effects of poverty benefit according to the domestic model of the tempo-deflator type has been carried out. The results of predictive calculations for this model are presented. It is shown that the additional revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation not only compensate for the initial costs of implementing the conditional UBI program but also annually exceed the initial costs by about 1,35 times. The country's leadership was proposed to combine the current system of targeted social support for the poor with payments of the conditional UBI to more consistently solve the problem of absolute monetary poverty