The Analysis of Statistical Data of Outpatient Treatment of COVID-19 in the City of Irkutsk in 2020–2021

Abstract

The emergence of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) has set health professionals tasks related to rapid diagnosis and medical care for patients. Currently, intensive study of the clinical and epidemiological features of the disease continues as well as the development of new means of its prevention and treatment. The most important role in the fight against the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is represented by organizational measures in providing medical care to patients with this pathology during the outpatient stage. Since January 2022, under the conditions of the spread of a new strain of SARS-CoV-2 omicron, there has been a significant increase in the burden on the outpatient health care unit. The omicron variant, carrying multiple substitutions in the coronavirus S-protein, half of which are located in the receptor-binding domain, has the highest contagiousness among all COVID-19 variants. The source of infection is a sick person, including one who is in the incubation period of the disease, and an asymptomatic carrier of SARS-CoV-2. The greatest danger to others is a sick person in the last two days of the incubation period and the first days of the disease. A new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) caused by the omicron variant is characterized by a shorter incubation period (2–7 days, on average 3–4 days). Transmission of infection is carried out by airborne, airborne and household contact routes. The leading route of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is airborne, which is realized when coughing, sneezing and talking. High contagiousness, the presence of several ways of transmission of infection, as well as the possibility of asymptomatic carrier, cause the rapid spread of the omicron strain. The purpose of this work is to analyze the statistics of outpatient treatment of COVID-19, to calculate the average treatment time in polyclinics. The article describes a study of the model of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic among outpatient patients in Irkutsk. From the analysis of the statistics of outpatient visits, a statistical curve was determined for the number of recovered patients depending on the duration of treatment. Gaussian and Lorentzian (in physical terminology) approximations of the statistical curve are proposed. The coefficients of approximations are determined by the method of least squares. The analytical formula for the average treatment time in the polyclinic is derived. Calculations of the average treatment time in outpatient settings were made, as well as the total costs of treatment of citizens in the city of Irkutsk were obtained.