Mathematical Model for SARS-COV-2 Infection Rate in Non-Infectious Hospitals on the Example of the City of Irkutsk

Abstract

The pandemic of a new coronavirus infection greatly affects the socio-economic development of many countries. Currently, the study of epidemic models is of great relevance. The purpose of this work is to build a mathematical model for the infection rate of uninfected patients in the hospital. The article describes a combinatorial model of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic among patients admitted to non-infectious hospitals. Using the combinatorial method, as well as using an improved model of epidemic kinetics for a locality, an analytical formula was derived for the rate of infection of uninfected patients without differences and taking into account differences in the work of hospital departments. Estimates of the rate of infection of patients for the δ virus and the Ω virus were made using the example of the regional hospital in the city of Irkutsk and medical hospitals in the city as a whole.