Genomic epidemiology reveals the dominance of Hennepin County in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Minnesota from 2020 to 2022

Abstract

ABSTRACT Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has had an unprecedented impact on human health and highlights the need for genomic epidemiology studies to increase our understanding of virus evolution and spread and to inform policy decisions. We sequenced viral genomes from over 22,000 patient samples tested at Mayo Clinic Laboratories between 2020 and 2022 and used Bayesian phylodynamics to describe county and regional spread in Minnesota. The earliest calculated introduction into Minnesota was to Hennepin County from a domestic source around 22 January 2020; 6 weeks before the first confirmed case in the state. This led to the virus spreading to Northern Minnesota and, eventually, the rest of the state. International introductions were most abundant in Hennepin (home to the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport) totaling 45 (out of 107) over the 2-year period. Southern Minnesota counties were most common for domestic introductions, with 19 (out of 64), potentially driven by bordering states such as Iowa and Wisconsin as well as Illinois, which is nearby. Hennepin also was, by far, the most dominant source of in-state transmissions to other Minnesota locations ( n = 772) over the 2-year period. We also analyzed the diversity of the location source of SARS-CoV-2 viruses in each county and noted the timing of state-wide policies as well as trends in clinical cases. Neither the number of clinical cases nor the major policy decisions, such as the end of the lockdown period in 2020 or the end of all restrictions in 2021, appeared to have an impact on virus diversity across each individual county. IMPORTANCE We analyzed over 22,000 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes of patient samples tested at Mayo Clinic Laboratories during a 2-year period in the COVID-19 pandemic, which included Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants of concern to examine the roles and relationships of Minnesota virus transmission. We found that Hennepin County, the most populous county, drove the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 viruses in the state after including the formation of earlier clades including 20A, 20C, and 20G, as well as variants of concern Alpha and Delta. We also found that Hennepin County was the source for most of the county-to-county introductions after an initial predicted introduction with the virus in early 2020 from an international source, while other counties acted as transmission “sinks.” In addition, major policies, such as the end of the lockdown period in 2020 or the end of all restrictions in 2021, did not appear to have an impact on virus diversity across individual counties.