State-of-the-Art Oil Spill Trajectory Prediction in Ice Infested Waters: A Journey from High Resolution Arctic-Wide Satellite Data to Advanced Oil Spill Trajectory Modeling-What You Need to Know

Abstract

ABSTRACT In ice covered waters, successful oil spill response requires predictions of where the oil and ice will travel. The International Association of Oil and Gas Producers (IOGP), Arctic Oil Spill Response Technology - Joint Industry Programme (JIP) funded research to improve oil spill response by leveraging new state-of-the-art ice forecasting into oil spill trajectory models. We present an overview of the systems and discuss how these advancements will provide responders with new information for spill preparedness and planning. The Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) has developed two coupled ice-ocean models that cover the entire Arctic: TOPAZ4 and neXtSIM. TOPAZ4 uses both in situ ocean data and satellite data; the model also includes an ecosystem model. The neXtSIM model is a new high resolution (3km) coupled ice-ocean which uses daily sea ice thickness and concentration fields from satellites. SINTEF’s Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) model can now use output from both TOPAZ and neXtSIM. The OSCAR user can view the ice conditions with the spill, and the oil trajectory is modified by the time dependent ice coverages. Case studies will be discussed that test the implementation for different areas of the Arctic. Through these case studies, we provide new types of information for spill responders. The OSCAR model also includes information on oil weathering in ice from extensive laboratory and flume data for oils in water with and without ice.Case Study 1: In the Beaufort Sea we compare observed ice drifter position time series with the ice drift calculated by the OSCAR model using input from the NERSC models. We then simulate a potential oil spill in the area.Case Study 2: The 2009 Joint Industry Project included fieldwork and modeling for oil released in marginal ice zone in the Barents Sea. In May 2009, 7000 liters of fresh Troll oil was released into the marginal ice zone to study the oil weathering, spreading and overall oil trajectory.