Recurrence analysis of meteorological data from climate zones in India

Abstract

We present a study on the spatiotemporal pattern underlying the climate dynamics in various locations spread over India, including the Himalayan region, coastal region, and central and northeastern parts of India. We try to capture the variations in the complexity of their dynamics derived from temperature and relative humidity data from 1948 to 2022. By estimating the recurrence-based measures from the reconstructed phase space dynamics using a sliding window analysis on the data sets, we study the climate variability in different spatial locations. The study brings out the variations in the complexity of the underlying dynamics as well as their heterogeneity across the locations in India. We find almost all locations indicate shifts to more irregular and stochastic dynamics for temperature data around 1972–79 and shifts back to more regular dynamics beyond 2000. These patterns correlate with reported shifts in the climate and Indian Summer Monsoon related to strong and moderate El Niño–Southern Oscillation events and confirm their associated regional variability.