Direct data-driven forecast of local turbulent heat flux in Rayleigh–Bénard convection

Abstract

A combined convolutional autoencoder–recurrent neural network machine learning model is presented to directly analyze and forecast the dynamics and low-order statistics of the local convective heat flux field in a two-dimensional turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection flow at Prandtl number [Formula: see text] and Rayleigh number [Formula: see text]. Two recurrent neural networks are applied for the temporal advancement of turbulent heat transfer data in the reduced latent data space, an echo state network, and a recurrent gated unit. Thereby, our work exploits the modular combination of three different machine learning algorithms to build a fully data-driven and reduced model for the dynamics of the turbulent heat transfer in a complex thermally driven flow. The convolutional autoencoder with 12 hidden layers is able to reduce the dimensionality of the turbulence data to about 0.2% of their original size. Our results indicate a fairly good accuracy in the first- and second-order statistics of the convective heat flux. The algorithm is also able to reproduce the intermittent plume-mixing dynamics at the upper edges of the thermal boundary layers with some deviations. The same holds for the probability density function of the local convective heat flux with differences in the far tails. Furthermore, we demonstrate the noise resilience of the framework. This suggests that the present model might be applicable as a reduced dynamical model that delivers transport fluxes and their variations to coarse grids of larger-scale computational models, such as global circulation models for atmosphere and ocean.