NLSI: An innovative method to locate epidemic sources on the SEIR propagation model

Abstract

Epidemics pose a significant threat to societal development. Accurately and swiftly identifying the source of an outbreak is crucial for controlling the spread of an epidemic and minimizing its impact. However, existing research on locating epidemic sources often overlooks the fact that epidemics have an incubation period and fails to consider social behaviors like self-isolation during the spread of the epidemic. In this study, we first take into account isolation behavior and introduce the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) propagation model to simulate the spread of epidemics. As the epidemic reaches a certain threshold, government agencies or hospitals will report the IDs of some infected individuals and the time when symptoms first appear. The reported individuals, along with their first and second-order neighbors, are then isolated. Using the moment of symptom onset reported by the isolated individuals, we propose a node-level classification method and subsequently develop the node-level-based source identification (NLSI) algorithm. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the NLSI algorithm is capable of solving the source identification problem for single and multiple sources under the SEIR propagation model. We find that the source identification accuracy is higher when the infection rate is lower, and a sparse network structure is beneficial to source localization. Furthermore, we discover that the length of the isolation period has little impact on source localization, while the length of the incubation period significantly affects the accuracy of source localization. This research offers a novel approach for identifying the origin of the epidemic associated with our defined SEIR model.