Impact of deforestation on radiative and thermal regimes of the territory of Ukraine on the base of global climate models data

Abstract

This paper is dedicated to the influence of partial deforestation with using global retrospective modelling data from The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) for the territory of Ukraine. This experiment aims to global gradual deforestation and has two phases. The first phase, defined as the pre-industrial period (1850—1899) with constant unchangeable anthropogenic impact. For this period deforestation modelled with further replacement with grass cover with a linear trend 400000 km2/yr or 20 million km2 per 50 years in general. The second phase is next 30 years with no significant changes in forest cover (1900—1929). For conducting this research the data of several global climate models were applied. The results of analysis have demonstrated that a partial deforestation with grass substitution influences the surface reflectivity or albedo and redistribution of shortwave radiative fluxes. In turn, it provokes changes in thermal regime. It was found that the most significant changes in surface reflectivity and the strongest correlation coefficients between albedo and deforestation are in the winter season due to the presence of snow cover. As a result, statistical significant increase of albedo is with maximum values up to 24 %/50 years in some grids in winter. Then in the summer season maximal changes are up to 2.7 %/50 years due to small differences between forest and grass albedos. As a consequence, changes in albedo cause changes in surface and air temperature regimes. Strong dependencies were found in winter between changes in albedo and temperatures with maximum temperature decrease 2.5…2.0 %/50 years. In warm season correlations are weaker in comparison to cold season, but nevertheless, temperatures decrease also take place with maximum values 2.0…1.5 %/50 years. The analysis between deforestation and daily air temperature range has shown that particularly in winter season there is an increase of 0.5...1.5 %/50 years, whereas such tendency is not observed in warm season. Calculations of year air temperature range demonstrated controversial results among climate models, as follows it is hard to make a conclusion about the contribution of forest cover reduction to changes in this index. It was revealed, that global climate models with higher resolution are more sensitive to changes in albedo and, as a consequence to other characteristics than models with coarse ones. It should be noticed that obtained results concern pre-industrial period with minimal anthropogenic impact, when observed a stable snow cover in winter in Ukraine. In the current climate change with significant warming and reduction of snow season duration deforestation can have opposite effects on radiative and thermal regimes that require further studying.