The impact of forest cover decrease on the wind regime changes for the territory of Ukraine based on data of the global numerical experiment LUMIP

Abstract

The article analyses and estimates the influence of partial deforestation on wind regime based on the global numerical experiment Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). This experiment is one of the components of the global project Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP 6). LUMIP aims to evaluate changes in climate characteristics and biogeochemical cycles due to partial global deforestation withsubsequent grassland establishment. A given period of retrospective modelling is divided into two subperiods. The first covers a time frame of 1850—1899 and a so-called subperiod with a minimum anthropogenic influence. During these modelled 50 years, the partial forest cover shrinkagewas conducted with a trend of 1 % per year the nodes where the forest cover exceeded 30 %. In the second subperiod (1900—1929), the forest cover was stable. Our previous papers concerned the influence of partial deforestation on the radiation, temperature, and moisture regimes in Ukraine. The present paper continues the analysis and is dedicated to the impact of partial deforestation on changes in the mean monthly wind surface speed based on data from available Global Climate Models (GCMs).Deforestation caused quantitative changes in wind speed during all months of the year for all GCMs used in the research, however, with a different sensitivity. Maximum changes were obtained from the model with the biggest step in forest cover shrinkage among all GCMs, approximately 1.6 % a node. It should be emphasized that the biggest changes occurredin the nodes where the forest was substituted with grassland. The obtained correlations of the deforestation and mean monthly wind speed were moderately or highly negative for all seasons. The maximum wind speed and the highest changes are during the winter. In January, for example,the maximum changes can reach up to 0.3 m/s per 10 years. During spring and autumn, such tendencies generallyvary up to 0.1—0.2 m/s per 10 years. The differences in wind speed between the subperiod of stable forest cover and the partial deforestation are up to 1.2 m/s at a particular grid point on the territory of Ukraine.