Predictive Index Using Receiver Operating Characteristic and Trend Analysis of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Incidence

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The city of Bandung is an endemic area of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Increased cases of DHF in the area have influenced the mortality rate. The number of deaths due to DHF in 2019 was 14 people. AIM: This study aims to analyze the epidemiological determinants and to observe the trend of analysis to project DHF cases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study used a case-control design. The case population is those who have DFH, while the control population is those who do not have DHF. There were 510 respondents included in this study. Samples were taken using a purposive sampling technique. Epidemiological determinants were analyzed using the Chi-square test and logistic regression, while the trend of the disease was analyzed using exponential smooth analysis. RESULTS: The result of this study showed that education (p = 0.036), the presence of mosquito larvae (p = 0.000), container materials (p = 0.002), water containers (p = 0.025), mosquito nets (p = 0.010), the presence of solid waste (p = 0.002), mosquito repellent plants (p = 0.041), and mobility (0.004). The most dominant epidemiological determinant was the presence of mosquito larvae (odds ratio = 3.2). The predictive index of DHF can predict people who are sick with DHF among the sick population is 68.6%. CONCLUSION: This study concluded that the significant epidemiological determinants are education, the presence of mosquito larvae, container materials, water containers, mosquito nets, the presence of solid waste, and mosquito repellent plants. Among those determinants, the presence of mosquito larvae is the most dominant factor. This study also concluded that there will be an increase in DFH cases over the next 5 years. Hence, it is important to increase larvae free index by empowering Kader Juru Pemantau Jentik (JUMANTIK) in Bandung and conducting epidemiological surveillance.