Modeling Applications

Abstract

ABSTRACT The concept of predictive microbiology has developed rapidly through the initial phases of experimental design and model development and the subsequent phase of model validation. A fully validated model represents a general rule which may be brought to bear on particular cases. For some microorganism/food combinations, sufficient confidence now exists to indicate substantial benefits to the food industry from use of predictive models. Several types of devices are available to monitor and record environmental conditions (particularly temperature). These “environmental histories” can be interpreted, using predictive models, in terms of microbial proliferation. The current challenge is to provide systems for the collection and interpretation of environmental information which combine ease of use, reliability, and security, providing the industrial user with the ability to make informed and precise decisions regarding the quality and safety of foods. Many specific applications for predictive modeling can be developed from a basis of understanding the inherent qualities of a fully validated model. These include increased precision and confidence in predictions based on accumulation of quantitative data, objective and rapid assessment of the effect of environmental conditions on microbial proliferation, and flexibility in monitoring the relative contribution of component parts of processing, distribution, and storage systems for assurance of shelf life and safety.