Origin and Extent of the Opacity Challenge for Atmospheric Retrievals of WASP-39 b

Abstract

Abstract As the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) came online last summer, we entered a new era of astronomy. This new era is supported by data products of unprecedented information content that require novel reduction and analysis techniques. Recently, Niraula et al. (N22) highlighted the need for upgraded opacity models to prevent facing a model-driven accuracy wall when interpreting exoplanet transmission spectra. Here, we follow the same approach as N22 to explore the sensitivity of inferences on the atmospheric properties of WASP-39 b to the opacity models used. We find that the retrieval of the main atmospheric properties from this first JWST exoplanet spectrum is mostly unaffected by the current state of the community’s opacity models. Abundances of strong opacity sources like water and carbon dioxide are reliably constrained within ∼0.30 dex, beyond the 0.50 dex accuracy wall reported in N22. Assuming the completeness and accuracy of line lists, N22's accuracy wall is primarily driven by model uncertainties on broadening coefficients and far-wing behaviors, which we find to have marginal consequences for interpreting the transmission spectra of large, hot, high-metallicity atmospheres such as WASP-39 b, in opposition to emission spectra and climate modeling, which depend on deeper parts of a planetary atmosphere. The origin of the opacity challenge in the retrieval of metal-rich hot Jupiters via transmission spectroscopy will thus mostly stem from the incompleteness and inaccuracy of line lists.