Ensemble Simulations of the 2012 July 12 Coronal Mass Ejection with the Constant-turn Flux Rope Model

Abstract

Abstract Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a promising tool for prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and use it to simulate the 2012 July 12 16:48 CME in the inner heliosphere. We constrain the initial parameters of this CME using the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the reconnected flux in post-eruption arcades. We correctly reproduce all the magnetic field components of the CME at Earth, with an arrival time error of approximately 1 hr. We further estimate the average subjective uncertainties in the GCS fittings by comparing the GCS parameters of 56 CMEs reported in multiple studies and catalogs. We determined that the GCS estimates of the CME latitude, longitude, tilt, and speed have average uncertainties of 5.°74, 11.°23, 24.°71, and 11.4%, respectively. Using these, we have created 77 ensemble members for the 2012 July 12 CME. We found that 55% of our ensemble members correctly reproduce the sign of the magnetic field components at Earth. We also determined that the uncertainties in GCS fitting can widen the CME arrival time prediction window to about 12 hr for the 2012 July 12 CME. On investigating the forecast accuracy introduced by the uncertainties in individual GCS parameters, we conclude that the half-angle and aspect ratio have little impact on the predicted magnetic field of the 2012 July 12 CME, whereas the uncertainties in longitude and tilt can introduce relatively large spread in the magnetic field predicted at Earth.