ENERGY: DEVELOPMENT FORECASTS, BIFURCATION POINTS (OVERVIEW)

Abstract

The forecast of the development of energy balances of the world, Europe and Ukraine is presented. It is emphasized that in its development, the energy industry passes through bifurcation points, the exit from which can change the development scenarios up to the termination of work in a number of scientific areas and technologies. The behavior of systems passing along the path of their development of the bifurcation point, detailed research by the Nobel Prize laureate, physicist and chemist I.R. Prigogine. In its dynamics of development, the energy sector of Ukraine has already passed bifurcation points. Global political changes in the USSR and in the world (the era of "perestroika", the collapse of the USSR and the entire socialist camp) made it impossible to fulfill the main provisions of the USSR Energy Program for the long term and the republican target complex scientific and technical program "Energocomplex", as well as the creation of a new production technology electric power (thermal power plant with combined cycle - MHD generator as a superstructure above the steam power unit). 2020 may also be a bifurcation point in the development of energy in the world and in the regions. Already now, global changes in real GDP and CO2 emissions clearly correspond to global geopolitical, economic and environmental shocks in the world, including the impending Covid-19 pandom. The energy policy of Ukraine (energy strategy) depends on the energy circuits of the new world - on the challenges and risks of a global and local nature. Geopolitical and economic turbulence in the world makes it necessary to promptly monitor and, if necessary, make adjustments to the forecasts for the development of the economies of countries and the world as a whole, including the basic component of the economy - energy. Suggestions are made for the need to support the energy strategy, including the energy strategy adopted in Ukraine in 2017 for the period up to 2035, by working documents - operational sliding forecast plans (roadmaps) to manage and monitor its implementation at intermediate time intervals, creating perhaps a specialized structure for these purposes.