Prognostic modelling of clinical outcomes after first-time acute coronary syndrome in New Zealand

Author:

Earle Nikki JORCID,Poppe Katrina KORCID,Rolleston Anna,Pilbrow Anna,Aish Sara,Bradbury Kathryn,Choi Yeunhyang,Devlin Gerry,Gladding Patrick A,Grey Corina,Harrison Wil,Henare Kimiora,Howson Joanna,Kerr Andrew,Lumley Thomas,Pera Vijaya,Porter Graeme,Stewart RalphORCID,Troughton Richard W,Wihongi Helen,Richards A Mark,Cameron Vicky A,Legget Malcolm E,Doughty Robert N

Abstract

ObjectiveThe Multi-Ethnic New Zealand Study of Acute Coronary Syndromes (MENZACS) was established to investigate the drivers of secondary events after first-time acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including addressing inequitable outcomes by ethnicity. Herein, the first clinical outcomes and prognostic modelling approach are reported.MethodsFirst, in 28 176 New Zealanders with first-time ACS from a national registry, a clinical summary score for predicting 1-year death/cardiovascular readmission was created using Cox regression of 20 clinical variables. This score was then calculated in the 2015 participant MENZACS study to represent clinical risk. In MENZACS, Cox regression was used to assess N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) as a prognostic marker for death/cardiovascular readmission in four models, adjusting for (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, ethnicity; (3) clinical summary score; (4) clinical summary score and ethnicity.ResultsOf the 2015 MENZACS participants (mean age 61 years, 79% male, 73% European, 14% Māori, 5% Pacific people), 2003 were alive at discharge. Of the 2003, 416 (20.8%) experienced all-cause death/cardiovascular readmission over a median of 3.5 years. In a simple model, age, male sex, Māori ethnicity and NT-proBNP levels were significant predictors of outcome. After adjustment for the clinical summary score, which includes age and sex, NT-proBNP and ethnicity were no longer statistically significant: log2(NT-proBNP) hazard ratio (HR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.98 to 1.08, p=0.305; Māori ethnicity HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.62, p=0.084.ConclusionsIn 2015 patients with first-time ACS, recurrent events were common (20.8%). Increasing NT-proBNP levels and Māori ethnicity were predictors of death/cardiovascular readmission, but not after adjustment for the 20 clinical risk factors represented by the clinical summary score.Trial registration numberACTRN12615000676516.

Funder

Healthier Lives National Science Challenge NZ

National Heart Foundation of New Zealand

Green Lane Research and Educational Fund

Publisher

BMJ

Subject

Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

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