Evaluation of vaccination strategies for the metropolitan area of Madrid via agent-based simulation

Author:

Singh David E,Olmedo Luceron Carmen,Limia Sanchez Aurora,Guzman Merino Miguel,Duran Gonzalez Christian,Delgado-Sanz Concepcion,Gomez-Barroso Diana,Carretero Jesus,Marinescu Maria-CristinaORCID

Abstract

ObjectiveWe analyse the impact of different vaccination strategies on the propagation of COVID-19 within the Madrid metropolitan area, starting on 27 December 2020 and ending in Summer of 2021.Materials and methodsThe predictions are based on simulation using EpiGraph, an agent-based COVID-19 simulator. We first summarise the different models implemented in the simulator, then provide a comprehensive description of the vaccination model and define different vaccination strategies. The simulator—including the vaccination model—is validated by comparing its results with real data from the metropolitan area of Madrid during the third COVID-19 wave. This work considers different COVID-19 propagation scenarios for a simulated population of about 5 million.ResultsThe main result shows that the best strategy is to vaccinate first the elderly with the two doses spaced 56 days apart; this approach reduces the final infection rate by an additional 6% and the number of deaths by an additional 3% with respect to vaccinating first the elderly at the interval recommended by the vaccine producer. The reason is the increase in the number of vaccinated individuals at any time during the simulation.ConclusionThe existing level of detail and maturity of EpiGraph allowed us to evaluate complex scenarios and thus use it successfully to help guide the strategy for the COVID-19 vaccination campaign of the Spanish health authorities.

Funder

Comunidad de Madrid and REACT-EU funds, PredCov

Horizon 2020 JTI-EuroHPC research and innovation program

Spanish Supercomputing Network

Publisher

BMJ

Subject

General Medicine

Reference34 articles.

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4. The WHO. Available: https://www.who.int/news/item/17-05-2022-statement-for-healthcare-professionals-how-covid-19-vaccines-are-regulated-for-safety-and-effectiveness

5. Assessing population-sampling strategies for reducing the COVID-19 incidence;Guzmán-Merino;Comput Biol Med,2021

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