Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution Under a Climate Change Scenario: Methodology and Case Study Application

Abstract

The World Health Organization estimates that every year air pollution kills seven million people worldwide. As it is expected that climate change will affect future air quality patterns, the full understanding of the links between air pollution and climate change, and how they affect human health, are challenges of future research. In this scope, a methodology to assess the air quality impacts on health was developed. The WRF-CAMx modelling framework was applied for the medium-term future climate (considering the SSP24.5 scenario) and for the recent past (considered as baseline). Following the WHO recommendations, mortality health indicators were used to estimate health impacts of long-term exposures. For that, the Aveiro Region, in Portugal, was considered as a case study. Future climate results indicate the occurrence of higher temperatures, and lower total precipitation. Despite that, improvements in the main pollutants’ concentrations, and consequently in the reduction of the related premature deaths are foreseen, mainly due to the reduction of pollutants emissions imposed by the European legislation for the upcoming years. The applied approach constitutes an added value in this research field, being crucial to anticipate the effects of climate change on air quality and evaluate their impacts on human health.