Statistical Validation of the Predicted Amount and Start Time of Heavy Rainfall in 2015 Based on the VIL Nowcast Method

Abstract

We statistically evaluated the rainfall amount predicted by VIL Nowcast, which is designed using vertically integrated liquid water content (VIL) through experimental data obtained over five months from June to October of 2015. The accuracy of predictions for the start time of heavy rain, which are vital for issuing warnings concerning localized heavy rain, was also reviewed. We revealed that VIL Nowcast could predict the rainfall amount more accurately than conventional methods up to the first 20 min of the evaluation period (30 min in total) with superior accuracy for the start time of severe rain from isolated convective cells in the first 10 min.