The Effect of Warming Winter Temperatures on the Severity of Pierce's Disease in the Appalachian Mountains and Piedmont of the Southeastern United States

Abstract

Pierce's disease (PD) caused by Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a major threat to the rapidly growing Vitis vinifera/French-American hybrid winegrape industry in the southeastern United States. The bacterium, which is transmitted by xylemfeeding insects, is unable to survive low winter temperatures, and infected vines often recover the next year. Maps available from the 1970s indicate that PD is not a serious threat in the southeastern US, where the average minimum January temperature is ≤ 1.7°C. However PD symptoms developed in many vineyards planted in the late 1990s in areas identified as low risk. Surveys conducted in North Carolina and Georgia confirmed the presence of Xf in symptomatic vines using ELISA kits. Weather data for November to March from 84 weather stations from 1972-2005 for Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia were used to construct new maps using ArcGIS 9.1, and PD survey data from vineyards were superimposed on the maps. Areas for low risk for PD corresponded most closely with a minimum winter temperature of ≤ -12.2°C for 2 to 3 days or ≤ -9.4°C for 4 to 5 days. Warm winter temperatures during the last 8 years have resulted in a significant shift in the isotherms towards the north and west, increasing the risk of PD in the Piedmont region of the Southeast, and have extended the threat into Virginia and Tennessee. Accepted for publication 11 March 2008. Published 18 July 2008.