Relating the Progeny Production Curve to the Speed of an Epidemic

Abstract

The dependence of the initial infection rate, r, on the basic reproductive number, R0, and the temporal moments of the progeny production curve are examined. A solution to the linearized Kermack-McKendrick equation is presented and used to analyze a variety of theoretical models of pathogen reproduction. The solution yields a relation between r and the basic reproductive number, R0; the mean time between pathogen generations, μ; and the standard deviation about this mean, σ. A transformation using the dimensionless variables rμ and rσ is introduced, which maps the solution onto a one-dimensional curve. An approximation for the value of r in terms of R0 and the first four temporal moments of the reproductive curve is derived. This allows direct comparison of epidemics resulting from theoretical models with those generated using experimentally obtained reproduction curves. For epidemics characterized by a value of rμ < 5, the value of r is well determined (<2%) by this fourth-order expansion regardless of the functional form of the reproduction curve.