A Synoptic Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Aspects of Grapevine Leafroll Disease in a Historic Napa Vineyard and Experimental Vine Blocks

Abstract

Five Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) epidemics were analyzed utilizing a standardized approach to robustly characterize the temporal and spatial parameters. Published data included in the analysis are from Spain, New Zealand, and Napa Valley, CA together with new data from a historic vineyard in Napa Valley, CA. Linear regression analyses of logit-transformed incidence data indicated a maximum average increase of 11% per year in disease incidence, with considerable variation among locations. Spatial analyses, including distribution fitting, examination of the effective sample size, and evaluation of the parameters of the binary power law fitted to variance data for disease incidence, indicated a high degree of consistency among the data sets. In all cases, except at very low disease incidence, a high degree of spatial aggregation was noted, with evidence that the degree of aggregation varied as a function of mean disease incidence. The polyetic dynamics of disease follow a logistic-like pattern over multiple seasons, consistent with limitation by inoculum availability (infected vines) at low incidence and limitation by disease-free vines at high incidence.