Factors Affecting China Birth Rate: Taking Shanghai as an Example

Abstract

China's birth rate has fallen off a cliff in the past few years, and the total birth rate has fallen below 10 per thousand. On January 17, 2022, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics released China's economic data for 2021. The annual birth population was 10.62 million, and the birth rate was 7.52‰. But in 2016, that figure was still 13.57‰. Previous studies have explored various influencing factors, but further research is needed on the degree of influence of multiple factors on the birth rate. Based on previous research, this study adopts mathematical-statistical methods such as principal component analysis, correlation analysis, stepwise multiple regression, and ridge regression to analyze more influencing factors to explore and test the effect of these factors on the birth rate and uses the data of the Shanghai Bureau of Statistics from 2002-2021 for 19 years to try and judge which factors significantly affect the birth rate under the joint action. The validity of the judgment conclusion is tested by various data from Beijing and Guangzhou in 2021. Results of the study found that the per capita GDP, unit housing price, per capita disposable income, and resident consumption index do have an impact on the birth rate. Still, the government's financial investment and expenditure correlate highly with the birth rate data. This may be because government revenue and expenditure are more closely related to other factors affecting the birth rate. Other factors were not very closely related to the birth rate.