Global trends in total fertility rate and its relation to national wealth, life expectancy and female education

Author:

Cheng Haoyue,Luo Wenliang,Si Shuting,Xin Xing,Peng Zhicheng,Zhou Haibo,Liu Hui,Yu Yunxian

Abstract

Abstract Objectives Along with the development of the times and progress of the society, the total fertility rate (TFR) markedly changed in each country. Therefore, it is critical to describe the trend of TFR and explore its influencing factors. However, previous studies did not consider the time lag and cumulative effect in the associations between the influencing factors and TFR. Thus, our study aimed to analyze the associations from a new dimension. Methods The study was employed using national-level data from the World Bank and United Nations Development Programme. Distributed lag non-linear models with 5-year lag were used to examine the independent associations between the relevant factors and TFR. Results The cumulative exposure-TFR curves were inverted U-shaped for log gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and life expectancy at birth, while the cumulative exposure-response curves were approximately linear for female expected years of schooling and human development index (HDI). However, it is worth noting that in the developed regions, TFR increased slightly with the high level of GDP per capita, female expected years of schooling and HDI. Conclusions Nowadays, with the growth of GDP per capita, life expectancy at birth, female expected years of schooling and HDI, TFR are on a drastic downward trend in most regions. Besides, with the development of society, when levels of the factors continued to increase, TFR also showed a slight rebound. Therefore, governments, especially those in developing countries, should take measures to stimulate fertility and deal with a series of problems caused by declining TFR.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Major research and development projects of Zhejiang science and Technology Department

Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province

Leading Innovative and Entrepreneur Team Introduction Program of Zhejiang

National Key Research and Development Programme of China

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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